The Case for optimism - part 3

May 16

Each year I record one episode of this podcast that makes the case for why we should be optimistic. This is part 3. (Click here for part 1 and here for part 2) There are a lot of disturbing events and trends that are happening in the world at present and yet despite all of these concerns I’ll argue the case for why we should remain optimistic about our future.

In this episode...

The climate is actually great [6:18]
How Happy Are Americans? [14:17]
How Americans are missing out on billions [16:23]

This episode is airing in June of 2024 and we are starting to see some market volatility of late. That can create a lot of fear in the hearts of investors. Add to that a war that continues to rage in Europe, Add to that a war that continues to rage in the Middle East, and finally add to that a presidential election this November where a solid majority of people overwhelmingly don’t want either candidate to be president. There is a lot we can worry about but yet despite all of these concerns we really should remain optimistic. Let’s look at some of the evidence as to what’s so great:

The first is to consider the state of democracy. We are in an election year where we are told that our democracy is at stake, and you get that from leaders and followers of both political parties. For this reason the upcoming presidential election is one of investors chief concerns. there certainly has been more challenges to the pillars of democracy in the USA and also in other countries around the world but it’s much wiser to step back and take a longer view of the state of democracy. In 1976 just 23% of countries were legitimate electoral democracies but it’s 51% now. That is remarkable progress.

The brutal terrorist attacks perpetuated by Hamas on October 7th, were absolutely sickening. Iran fired 170 drones, more than 30 cruise missiles and more than 120 ballistic missiles but due to the marvels of technology and the help of allies 99% of them were intercepted or eliminated.

I recently read the book “Unsettled” by Steven E Kooning, The subtitle of the books is this “What climate science tells us, what it doesn’t, and why it matters”. Dr. Kooning notes that heat waves in the US are now no more common than they were in 1900 and that the warmest temperatures in the US have not risen in the past 50 years. Weather-fixated television news would make us all think that disasters are getting worse. They’re not. Around 1900, 4.5 percent of the land area of the world would burn every year. Over the last century, this declined to 3.2 percent. In the previous two decades, satellites have shown further decline — in 2021, just 2.5 percent burned.

Here’s additional details on how far we have come:

Global poverty rates have been reduced by 50% in the past 20 years. A hundred years ago, three-quarters of the world’s population lived in extreme poverty. Today, it’s less than 10%.
Human life expectancy has doubled over the past century, from 36 years in 1920 to more than 72 years today.

Americans fell to 23rd place in happiness, down from 15th a year ago, according to data collected in the Gallup World Poll for the World Happiness Report 2024. In the U.S., self-reported happiness has fallen in all age groups, but especially among young adults. Americans 30 and younger ranked 62nd globally in well-being. If you want to know how great you have it, you should really travel more to third world countries. What we have here in America, especially the freedoms provided by the inspired constitution are the envy of the world. There are 7.9 Billion people on planet 🌎 yet only 4.2% of us live in the USA 331,449,281. It’s a remarkable privilege but it’s only appreciated if you travel.

Tips Tricks and Strategies

I will share a tip on how to earn more interest on your savings but oddly many Americans curiously are not doing so. This information is courtesy of a recent article in the WSJ entitled The $42 Billion Question: Why Aren’t AmericansDitching Big Banks? Americans are missing out on billions of dollars in interest by keeping their savings at the biggest U.S. banks.

I’ve helped at least a dozen clients and even more non-clients transfer some of their deposits to online banks accounts earning as much as 5% which are also FDIC insured. These accounts were setup in as little as 20 minutes and they easily transferred funds between their traditional account and their new online bank account.

References

Good News, the World Is Getting Better

U.S. Carbon (CO2) Emissions 1960-2024

Climate Change Indicators: U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions

American Airlines Announces Agreement to Purchase Boom Supersonic Aircraft

Ridley: Good News Is Gradual, Bad News Is Sudden

Is humanity doomed? Five ways the world is actually doing better - in data

The World has made spectacular progress

2022 Was One of the Worst Years Ever For Markets

The World Really Is Getting Better

The $42 Billion Question: Why Aren’t Americans Ditching Big Banks?

Why Climate Alarmism Hurts us All