The Case for Optimism
If you read the news, it can get pretty disheartening. It doesn’t matter if you read the news from today, a few years ago, or from any time for that matter as there seems to be an overall theme of negativity. The news was once famously described as "nattering nabobs of negativism”.
The intent of this blog by no means is meant to disparage the media, but rather serve as a reminder that media companies are businesses, and that negative news attracts more attention and subsequently more revenue for them. More eyeballs mean they can charge higher prices for commercials. “If it bleeds it leads” as the saying goes. While the media may have a financially compelling reason to focus on negative things or things that generate fear, it is important to not let this shape our perspective of the general trajectory of humanity which is undoubtedly positive.
The intent of this blog is to focus more of our attention on the remarkably great things that have happened, that are happening, and seem likely to happen in the years to come. This remarkable progress may be best illustrated through the eyes of some ancestors of mine.
Meet my Great Grandparents, John Norris West and Margaret Biringer in the picture above, both clad in some really sweet fur coats. Great Grandpa John was born in the United States in 1859 and emigrated to Canada in 1894. Great Grandma Margaret was born in Germany and first immigrated to Wisconsin. She later immigrated to Canada having answered Grandpa John’s advertisement in a newspaper for a bride after his first wife died during childbirth shortly after their move to Canada. Great Grandpa John was a rancher, and over a six-week period drove his cattle from Jackson Hole, Wyoming to Southern, Alberta, Canada - a distance of around 600 miles! Grandpa John settled near the town of Mountain View where he built his own home. As you can gather from the name it’s a stunning place to live, at least in the summer. But cattle ranching is a hard way to make a living, especially through the brutal Canadian winters. Your entire livelihood is at the mercy of capricious mother nature. Not surprisingly, Great Grandpa John and Great Grandma Margaret and their family never had much. He died in 1930 just over a week after his 71st birthday.
I share a brief insight of my Great Grandparents life story to show what remarkable progress we’ve seen in just three generations of time; theirs to mine. My Great Grandparents built their own home, gave birth to their children in that home, didn’t enjoy indoor plumbing or electricity until the later years of their life, and yet just three generations later I marvel to think how incredibly different my life is to theirs.
Could you imagine telling my homesteading Great Grandparents that their great-grandson could speak and see someone instantly on the other side of the world via a device the size of half a piece of bread? What would they say when you explained that this “Facetime” was made possible because of the signals being sent via satellites orbiting the earth? It would be mind-blowing. Imagine if my Great Grandparents were shown a smart speaker that you could give voice commands to? In their day a “smart speaker” was likely a politician; today, not so much. What would my Great Grandparents think when they heard someone say, “Hey Alexa, please order me some toilet paper,” and a few hours later (pre-Covid) it’s dropped off at their doorstep? My Great Grandparents didn’t even have indoor plumbing for most of their lives, let alone toilet paper or a way to order it to be delivered just hours later.
What would they say about self-driving cars? Back then it was when their horse took off with no one in the carriage. What would my Grandparents say about the feats of architecture, medicine, agricultural productivity, airplanes, and space travel that could be enjoyed by their great-grandson?
All of this progress occurred in the last 100 years, and the pace of positive change is only moving faster (see Moore’s famous law*). If this is the progress of the last 100 years, what about the progress in the next 100 years? I don’t think we can even imagine it, much like any of our Great Grandparents could possibly have imagined our day.
Pictured above are my Grandparents Steele and Loree Brewerton who recently celebrated their 75th wedding anniversary! Click here to read an article in the local paper about this milestone. Grandpa Steele turns 98 at the end of May, and Grandma Loree turns 95 in September. Recently my mother, siblings, and I had a Zoom call with them to visit and celebrate their 75 years of marriage. My grandmother commented on how remarkable it was that we could see and talk with one another despite being in different locations (2 different countries, two different states, one province, and five different cities). The changes that my grandparents have seen during their lifetime (indoor plumbing, telephones, air travel, & internet etc.) are nothing short of miraculous. Those changes will continue.
I share this to show the remarkable pace of progress. But if you focused instead on the negative, you would have missed out on how bright the future can be. Let’s say we told someone in 1900 that the following would occur in the next 120 years:
- 2 world wars
- Over 30 other major wars and conflicts** with multiple genocides
- 17 recessions in the United States alone
- 1 depression
- terrorist attacks around the globe
- Bouts of Mass Starvation and two Global Pandemics (1918 and 2020/2021)
If then you asked that person if they wanted to invest in the stock market during that period, they may have said you’d be crazy, and yet look at the chart over the last 100+ years.
Yes, I admit that there are things happening now that are very concerning, but a review of history shows that has always been the case. There have always been reasons why it’s scary to invest, and yet investing proves itself over and over again. Some argue that this time it’s different. Let me remind you that you’re joining a long list of people that said the same thing throughout the events of the last century, and they were all proved wrong. Maybe you will be too, or maybe not. We just don’t know, but I believe that regardless of what happens, people will still work and earn a living. People will still spend their money on goods and services. Investing in companies that provide these goods and services is one of the best ways to grow your wealth.
Thank you for taking the time to read my blog. I hope you found it helpful. If you have any questions, please feel free to reach out.
Resources:
* Moore's Law states that we can expect the speed and capability of our computers to increase every couple of years, and we will pay less for them. https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/history/museum-gordon-moore-law.html
**(https://www.thoughtco.com/major-wars-and-conflicts-20th-century-1779967)
Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk including loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss.
